EU clean energy output declines, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 10

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.10%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.06%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.00%. The German DAX index rose 0.22%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 1.17%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.64%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.27%.

2. Market news interpretation

EU clean energy output declined, and fossil fuels showed durability

⑴ In the first half of 2025, EU utilities increased the output of natural gas and coal power plants, resulting in increased emissions in the power sector and reversed the recent momentum of energy transformation. ⑵In the previous two years, the EU's fossil fuel usage dropped sharply, making Europe a global leader in reducing its dependence on polluted fuels in electricity production. ⑶ However, EU utilities had to make up for it by significantly increasing fossil fuel generation between January and June, as output from wind farms and hydro dams fell year-on-year. ⑷ Data shows that EU utilities generated electricity from fossil fuels in the first half of 2025 increased by 13% www.qgrse.cnpared with the same period in 2024, the largest annual increase in fossil fuel production in the period since 2017. ⑸ Natural gas power generation increased by 19%, reaching the highest level in three years; coal power generation increased by 2%, reaching the highest level in two years. ⑹ Wind farm output fell 9% year-on-year, hydropower dam power output fell 15% year-on-year, while solar power generation increased by 21%, setting a new high.⑺The decline in wind speed and reduced snowfall caused by climate change have put wind and hydropower generation in challenges, while solar power generation has increased, but it is still not enough to fill the gap. ⑻ This shows that despite the EU's ambition to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for a long time, natural gas and coal will remain an important part of EU utilities for some time to www.qgrse.cne.

The Turkish Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves increased significantly

⑴ The Turkish Central Bank's www.qgrse.cn international reserves increased significantly by more than US$11 billion to US$57.5 billion in the week ended July 4, 2025. ⑵Economists said the significant increase in www.qgrse.cn reserves was mainly due to the high www.qgrse.cn foreign exchange purchases of the central bank, as well as the contribution of the Ministry of Finance to issue Islamic bonds (sukuks), swap transactions with banks and gold revaluation. ⑶The exchange rate on July 10 was 1 US dollar to 39.677 Turkish lira.

OPEC+ considers suspending production increases from October to enter a wait-and-see period

According to OPEC representatives, OPEC+ is discussing suspending further production increases after the next monthly production increase (August decides the scale of production increase in September). OPEC+ has initially planned to www.qgrse.cnplete the final stage of restoring supply of 2.2 million barrels in September, with a monthly increase of 550,000 barrels. Delegates said OPEC+ may wait for a while before considering restoring another level of production cuts, with a scale of about 1.66 million barrels per day.

Dutch economic growth expects to slow down

Dutch government policy adviser CPB expects Dutch economic growth to be lower than previous expectations, with the economic growth rate expected to be 1.3% in 2026, down from 1.5% previously forecast. The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2025, www.qgrse.cnpared with a previous forecast of 1.9%. The CPB said that the impact of the tariff policies implemented by the United States on international trade is the main reason for the slowdown in Dutch economic growth expectations.

Delta expects third-quarter profits to exceed expectations, and improve profitability through capacity and cost control

⑴ Delta expects third-quarter profits to exceed analyst expectations and annual profits will also increase, mainly due to the industry's efforts to adjust capacity to match demand, thereby improving pricing power. ⑵Degree withdraws its full-year financial forecast for 2025 in April as Trump's tariff rhetoric affects consumer and corporate confidence. ⑶ Despite this, industry executives said travel demand has stabilized, but U.S. passenger volume is still lower than the same period last year, resulting in a drop in air ticket prices. ⑷ Delta said its bookings have stabilized and remained flat in the same period last year, but pricing power is still under pressure, especially in the domestic U.S. market. ⑸ Airlines plan to cut capacity after July to match the supply and demand of airline seats and prevent further discount pressure. Delta expects the adjustment to improve unit revenue in the second half of the year, the agency metric for pricing power. ⑹The www.qgrse.cnpany also protects profit margins through cost control measures, and non-fuel operating costs are expected to remain flat or decline in the third quarter. ⑺Delta expects adjusted profit per share in the third quarter to be $1.25 to $1.75, and will be adjusted for the whole yearOverall earnings per share are expected to be between $5.25 and $6.25. ⑻Decimal Airways outperformed its peers despite the impact of falling travel demand on all U.S. airlines, with diversified revenue streams, strong demand for high-end travel and added value from its customer loyalty program.

UK producer inflation is higher than previous expectations, and official data corrections show that the latest revised data of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the price inflation rate of industrial producers in the UK is higher than previous estimates. ⑵ONS is revising broad economic data issues, including unemployment rates and producer prices, with an official review last month calling for a major restructuring of its management. ⑶Producer price data measures changes in the input costs and sales prices of manufacturing and service www.qgrse.cnpanies, and is used to adjust inflation rates in different industries, and is also used in part of trade data. ⑷ONS suspended the release of producer price data in March, and it is expected to resume normal release in October because it found that there is an error in the encoding of the "chain link" method in its data production system. ⑸ Revised data released on Thursday showed that the annual input and output inflation rates of factories increased significantly in 2023, up by an average of 1.0 and 1.1 percentage points respectively. ⑹Revised data shows that the output prices of UK factory in the second half of 2023 did not approach deflation, but rose at a rate of about 1% per year. ⑺Producer output price inflation rate was revised from 0.3% to 0.6% in January 2025, and the revised data in April was 0.5%. ⑻ONS said that the extent of further correction is expected to be small.

The Central Bank of Kazakhstan expects to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged on Friday

⑴ According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 16.50% at its meeting on Friday. ⑵This forecast summarizes the opinions of 9 experts, of which 8 believe that the interest rate will remain at 16.50%, and only one expects the interest rate to be raised to 17.00%. ⑶ Kazakhstan's inflation rate rose to 11.8% in June, further up from 11.3% in May and 10.7% in April, far higher than the central bank's 5% target. ⑷ Kazakhstan's central bank raised the benchmark interest rate significantly from 15.25% to 16.50% in early March to avoid the need for larger interest rate hikes in the future. Interest rates remained at 16.50% in April and June. ⑸ Yevgeny Vinokurov, chief economist at Eurasian Development Bank, said that the current interest rate level will help stabilize inflation expectations, curb further inflation rise, and return it to its target level.

British builder Vistry's profit in the first half of the year is expected to decline by 34%, but full-year growth expectations remain unchanged

⑴British builder Vistry expects adjusted pre-tax profit to decline by about 34% in the first half of 2025. ⑵ However, the www.qgrse.cnpany maintained its full-year profit growth expectations, mainly due to the government's increased investment in affordable housing. ⑶ The UK construction industry has recovered slowly under pressure from high interest rates and real estate transaction taxes, and recent stable borrowing costs and government support have enhanced cautious optimism in the market. ⑷British Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced an additional £10 billion investment plan last month to build more housing. ⑸Vistry said the funding and other measures are expected to drive more contracts with affordable housing partners in the second half of 2025 and extend them into 2026. ⑹ Despite improvements in market demand, the affordability challenges faced by first-time home buyers still exist, and the time for interest rate cuts is expected to be postponed. ⑺Vistry focuses on affordable housing, increasing cash flow by accelerating discounts and bulk sales. As of the end of June, its www.qgrse.cn debt was £295 million, down from £322 million a year ago. ⑻Vistry shares rose 5.4% in early Thursday, but then rose and fell in volatile trading.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1710, a drop of 0.08%. Before New York, the price of (EUR/USD) fell at the recent intraday level due to the resistance level stabilized at 1.1745, and the pair represented a dynamic resistance on the exchange below the EMA50, which prevented the recovery and the dominance of the short-term bearish correction wave and its trading within the channel range, in addition to forming a negative divergence on (RSI), they began to show negative signals after reaching overbought levels.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3573, a drop of 0.09%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose slightly in the last intraday trading, supported by the initial positive signal of (RSI), indicating that the improvement in technical momentum is limited, but the price is still in a bearish correction trend in the short term, trading below EMA50, which represents a dynamic resistance that prevents trading from turning to a significant upward trend, and the possibility of maintaining volatility is effective in the short term.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3320.47, an increase of 0.21%. Before the New York market, the price of (gold) rose in the last intraday trading, taking advantage of the negative pressure above the EMA50 to close above the $3315 resistance level. Despite the last rise, the price still moved along the bearish correction trend line in the short term, which may continue its upcoming gains, reversing the intraday trend, especially as (RSI) begins to form a negative divergence, as negative overlap signals appear after reaching overbought levels.

NowSilver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.671, an increase of 0.84%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) expanded its gains in the last intraday trading, taking advantage of the dynamic support of the trade above the EMA50 and dominant with the dominance of the main bullish trend in the short term, in addition to the positive signals on (RSI), after reaching the oversold level.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 67.860, a drop of 0.76%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price fell in the last intraday trading, and in the case of negative signals (RSI), trying to obtain positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, trading along the bias line with the positive pressure under which it trades above the EMA50 continues to exist, forming dynamic support and preventing bearish trajectories.

4. Institutional View

Bank U.S.: Brent oil prices remain strong in the uncertainty of global economic growth and geopoliticality

Francisco Blanch, www.qgrse.cnmodity strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that despite the uncertainty of global economic growth and geopolitical this year, Brent crude oil prices still show strong resilience, with the average price remaining at $70.75 per barrel since January. The key factors behind it include: the global oil surplus was absorbed in the second quarter, which tightened global supply and curbed the decline in oil prices. In addition, strong consumer demand also provides strong support for oil prices, and demand for road and air travel is still strong. At the same time, U.S. tariff policies have prompted importers to purchase crude oil in advance to avoid possible restrictions in the future, which also provides additional support for oil prices.

Bank Francisco Tiago Carvalho and Luca Pennarola pointed out in a research report that increasing national defense and infrastructure spending will help alleviate the negative impact of the eurozone due to aging population. Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, is planning to significantly increase weapons and infrastructure spending, while the EU is also pushing for higher defense spending. These measures will help deal with the devastating impact of aging population starting this year. In the past, labor growth was the main reason for the potential output increase in the euro zone, but now, with the change in population structure, increasing national defense and infrastructure spending has become particularly important to promote economic growth.

The above content is about "【XM official website】: EU clean energy output declines, spot gold, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange on July 10The entire content of Short-Term Trend Analysis was carefully www.qgrse.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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