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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: UK economic data is weak, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 11th". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.62%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.59%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.51%. The German DAX index fell 0.91%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.45%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.85%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.95%.
⑴ On July 11, the pound fell 0.26% against the US dollar to US$1.3540, close to a two-week low. ⑵ UK's GDP shrank by 0.1% month-on-month in May, down for the second consecutive month after a 0.3% decline in April. The drag was mainly weak industrial and construction output. ⑶ING economist James Smith pointed out that although the conclusion that economic pressure is increasing cannot be drawn from GDP data alone, the employment market does have the risk of rapid deterioration. ⑷ The market expects the probability of the Bank of England's 25 basis points cut rate in August to rise to 78.3%, up from 64% two weeks ago. ⑸ British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is under pressure, and economists expect she may need to raise taxes again in the fall budget to balance public finances. ⑹ Last week, the UK market was hit by the Labor government’s passage of a controversial welfare bill that failed to achieve expected spending cuts, heightening concerns about the government’s fiscal sustainability. ⑺The global market is turbulent due to Trump's tariff remarks, and the trade agreement reached between the United Kingdom and the United States has made it on the side of trade uncertaintyThe surface exposure is less, which is also reflected in the pound's rise of 8% against the dollar so far this year.
⑴ European www.qgrse.cnmission Vice President Carras said that negotiations with the United States on tariff issues have not yet achieved results and the EU does not want retaliation measures. ⑵Early, EU officials said they did not expect to receive a tariff letter from the US, but Trump said the EU and Canada would receive a letter notifying the new tariff rate in the near future. ⑶ Analysts on Forexlive, a financial website, expect that the EU will not take retaliation immediately, but will continue to negotiate and strive to obtain some concessions. ⑷The most likely situation at present is that the United States imposes a 10% tariff on EU products.
On July 11, local time, the German Federal Government News and www.qgrse.cnrmation Office announced that German Chancellor Merz will visit London, the British capital on July 17, when he will meet with British Prime Minister Stamer. The statement also stated that during the visit, Britain and Germany planned to sign a friendly treaty. The friendly treaty will focus on diplomatic and security policy cooperation, economic growth and strengthening ties between the citizens of the two countries. From July 8 to 10, French President Macron began a three-day state visit to the UK. This is the first time that the French president has visited the UK since 2008, and it is also the first time that EU leaders have visited the UK since the UK officially "Brexit".
⑴ According to KazTransOil, Kazakhstan's national oil transporter, from January to June 2025, the crude oil supply to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline increased by 46% year-on-year to 926,000 tons. ⑵In June, Kazakhstan supplied 160,000 tons of crude oil to Germany through the pipeline.
⑴ According to Kpler data, Russia's crude oil supply from the Arctic region to Syria is expected to reach 7 million barrels in 2025. ⑵ Data shows that around June 11, Syria's Port of Banias welcomed the eighth batch of crude oil cargo from the Russian Arctic. ⑶ Market analyst Ying CongLoh pointed out that this delivery further consolidates Russia's dominance in Syria's crude oil imports, after Iran's crude oil supply ended after the fall of the Assad regime in 2024. ⑷ Although the United States has lifted most of its economic sanctions, crude oil transport from other producers has not been recorded in 2025, highlighting Russia's near monopoly position in Syria's energy imports.
⑴Bank of America interest rate strategists said the Bank of England may slow down the pace of quantitative tightening to £60 billion per year from October. ⑵ Quantitative tightening refers to the process by which the Bank of England cuts its holdings of British Treasury bonds it bought during previous periods of quantitative easing. ⑶itePreviously, the Bank of England's quantitative tightening rate was to reduce its holdings by 100 billion pounds in the 12 months to September. ⑷Bank believes that quantitative tightening may slow down because this process may tighten the monetary environment.
The Russian Ministry of Defense may give up the restoration of the USS Kuznetsov aircraft carrier. Sources revealed that the maintenance and modernization of the aircraft carrier have been suspended. Representatives of the Russian Navy and United Shipbuilding www.qgrse.cnpany will make a decision on the fate of the warship in the near future. Experts do not rule out the possibility that this aircraft carrier, which is both technically and physically outdated, will be retired.
⑴Russian Ural crude oil prices remain below the price ceiling of $60 per barrel set by Western countries, Reuters' calculations based on trader data showed. ⑵ Oil prices rose on Friday as investors weighed the relationship between spot market tensions and the potential surplus this year predicted by the International Energy Agency, while focusing on U.S. tariffs and possible further sanctions on Russia. ⑶On Thursday, Ural crude oil loading prices from Russian Baltic and Black Sea ports were about US$58 per barrel (FOB price, excluding charter fees and insurance). ⑷ Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors feared the impact of Trump tariffs on global economic growth, but stabilized on Friday. ⑸ The United States, other G7 countries and Australia implement price caps at the end of 2022, aiming to reduce Russia's offshore oil export revenue through sanctions. ⑹According to the price cap clause, suppliers can use Western shipping and insurance services only if Russian crude oil trades below $60 per barrel. ⑺The European www.qgrse.cnmission is expected to propose the introduction of a floating price cap in the new draft sanctions to overcome opposition from some member states. ⑻As the current price cap has basically expired due to the decline in global oil prices, the www.qgrse.cnmittee proposed to reduce the price cap of the G7 from US$60 per barrel to US$45.
⑴ European rating agency Scope report shows that Germany's debt levels are expected to rise to 74% of GDP by 2030, up from 62.5% last year, mainly due to increased spending on defense and infrastructure. ⑵ German parliament approved a large-scale spending plan in March, breaking decades of fiscal conservatism. ⑶Scope analyst Julian Zimmermann said that despite rising debt, the pressure on the government's core budget will increase over time. ⑷ Increases in interest expenses and social security (including pensions and health care) will limit fiscal flexibility. ⑸Scope expects that by 2035, the proportion of available funds in the federal budget will drop from 24% to 3%. ⑹The report said that in order to maintain policy flexibility, Germany needs to carry out structural reforms, such as pension and labor market reforms. ⑺Scope says Germany's planned 500 billion euro infrastructure fund may make Europe's mostThe growth potential of large economies has increased from the current 0.7% to 1%. ⑻In contrast, additional defense spending has a moderate driving effect on growth. Scope calculations show that for every 1 euro of defense spending invested, only 0.5 euros can flow into the domestic economy as a growth stimulus.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1686, a drop of 0.11%. Before New York, the euro fell in the last intraday trading, affected by the continued short-term bearish correction trend and moved along the bearish bias line, breaking through the key support level 1.1685, which represents the target we mentioned in our forecast yesterday, indicating that the selling pressure continues.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3501, a drop of 0.56%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell in the last intraday trading, affected by the dominance of short-term bearish correction waves, as bullish momentum weakens and price technical pressure continues.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3345.59, an increase of 0.66%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose in the last intraday trading after exceeding negative pressure from the EMA50, providing a positive momentum that helped it break through the bearish correction bias that limits its short-term movement.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 37.547, an increase of 1.52%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (silver) price expanded its gains in the last intraday trading, taking advantage of the dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50, trading along the bias line under the dominant position of the major bullish trend in the short term, ready to reach the stubborn key resistance level of $17.30. On the other hand, we noticed that negative overlap signals began to appear on the (RSI) after reaching the overbought level, which could temporarily slow the uptrend.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 67.240, an increase of 1.04%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) closed at a low level in the last intraday trading, relying on the key support level of $66.00, accompanied by the price relying on the support of MA50, and in the short term testingThe main bullish trend line is tested, indicating that the support level is stable.
⑴ Citigroup announced on Friday that it will set the 2026 mid-year target of MSCI All Global Countries Index (local pricing) to 1150 points. ⑵The bank expects that the global stock market will be in a range fluctuation before the end of the year. ⑶ In the first half of next year, the global stock market is expected to see a "significant" rise. ⑷ This target is 1100.213 points higher than the latest closing price of MSCI's all-country index in the world, which means about 5% upside potential.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The UK economic data is weak, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 11" was carefully www.qgrse.cnpiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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