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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.qgrse.cnmentary]: OPEC+ production increase is less than expected to support oil prices, Democrats urge Trump to negotiate a shutdown and choose the direction of gold price at 4000 mark." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (November 3, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$3,990 per ounce. The hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials last week put pressure on the market, while trade tensions The easing has dragged down gold prices, with U.S. crude oil trading around $61.35/barrel, and uncertainty over the situation in Venezuela increasing. Although all OPEC+ delegations agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels/day in December, production increases will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, which is lower than market expectations and supports oil prices.
U.S. stocks closed higher last Friday, driven by Amazon's strong profit forecast. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones all recorded weekly gains and set the longest monthly winning streak in years.
The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.09% to 47562.87 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 0.26% to 6840.20 points; the Nasdaq Index rose 0.61% to 23724.96 points. In October, the S&P 500 rose 2.27%, its sixth consecutive month of gains, its longest winning streak since August 2021.
The Nasdaq rose 4.7% in October, marking its seventh consecutive month of gains, the longest streak since early 2018. The Dow rose 2.5% in October, its sixth straight month of gains and its longest monthly gain since January 2018.
Amazon shares soared nearly 10% to a record high after issuing an upbeat quarterly sales forecast and pushedThe consumer discretionary sector has strengthened significantly. However, the market's optimism was dampened by two factors: First, despite Apple's strong iPhone sales forecast, its CEO Cook's warning about supply constraints dragged down the stock price slightly; second, many Federal Reserve officials issued hawkish remarks, pouring cold water on the market's expectations of a radical interest rate cut, causing traders to significantly reduce the probability of a December interest rate cut.
In terms of sectors, food retail stocks were generally under pressure due to market concerns that the government shutdown may affect federal food assistance programs. Although the court ruled that the government must continue to pay related benefits, the stock prices of retailers such as Kroger and Walmart all closed lower.
Among individual stocks, Warner Bros. Discovery's stock price rose sharply due to rumors that www.qgrse.cnflix may be interested in its assets; www.qgrse.cnflix's stock price rose after announcing a stock split plan; Western Digital and First Solar also recorded considerable gains due to performance exceeding expectations.
Overall, the market is in a tug-of-war between positive corporate earnings reports and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. With the government shutdown disrupting the release of economic data, investors are relying more on corporate results to gauge the health of the economy.
The price of gold fell by about 1% last Friday, barely holding the $4,000/ounce mark, mainly affected by the market's uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's future path of interest rate cuts. Although gold prices still recorded gains for a third consecutive month in October, hawkish www.qgrse.cnments from Federal Reserve officials put pressure on the market.
Cleveland Fed President Hammaker publicly stated that she opposed last week's decision to cut interest rates and emphasized that policy must remain restrictive in order to curb inflation. This www.qgrse.cnment reinforced the cautious sentiment in the market, causing traders to significantly reduce the probability of another interest rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index held steady near a three-month high, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, further weighing on gold prices.
Despite short-term pressure, institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects. Morgan Stanley pointed out that there is still room for gold prices to rise in the future, and it expects the average price of gold to reach US$4,300 per ounce in the first half of 2026. Supporting factors include expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and continued economic uncertainty.
In terms of other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.7% to US$48.58 per ounce; platinum fell 1.7% to US$1,582.89 per ounce; palladium fell 0.2% to US$1,442.01 per ounce.
Oil prices closed slightly higher on Friday, rising suddenly in response to media reports that the United States may launch air strikes on Venezuela within hours. However, the rally quickly retreated after U.S. President Trump publicly denied the plan on social media, and market sentiment subsequently calmed.
Analysts pointed out that such geopolitical rumors have a significant impact on the market, adding uncertainty to the trend of oil prices on Monday. Meanwhile, a stronger U.S. dollar has made oil priced in U.S. dollars more expensive against other currencies.Home is more expensive.
Judging from monthly performance, as OPEC+ continued to increase production and U.S. crude oil production hit a record high last week, both Brent and U.S. crude oil recorded a decline of approximately 2.6% in October.
On Sunday, all OPEC+ delegations agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. Market surveys also slightly raised their average forecast for oil prices in 2025, with Brent crude averaging $67.99 a barrel in 2025, about 38 cents higher than September estimates. U.S. crude oil prices are expected to average $64.83, slightly higher than the September estimate of $64.39.
On Friday, the Japanese yen recorded a monthly decline against the US dollar, mainly because the Bank of Japan was not as tough as market expectations on raising interest rates, and the Federal Reserve also curbed expectations of an interest rate cut in December, which jointly boosted the strength of the US dollar.
Although Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said that he was monitoring exchange rate trends with a high sense of urgency, and Tokyo's core inflation data accelerated and remained above the central bank's target, providing some support for the yen, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious attitude on raising interest rates still disappointed the market, causing the yen to www.qgrse.cne under pressure. Some analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will eventually promote policy normalization, coupled with wage growth and potential fiscal expansion policies, which may provide long-term support for the yen.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar index extended its gains, recording its best monthly performance since July. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December have cooled significantly, with traders now pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut, down from 93% a week ago. Some strategists pointed out that the U.S. dollar faces technical resistance, but given that market positions are close to the limit, it is difficult to further short the U.S. dollar.
In Europe, the euro fell against the dollar after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time and stressed that policy was in a "good position." The pound fell to multi-month lows as the market worried about Britain's fiscal policy and economic prospects, and expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England increased.
As the U.S. government shutdown impasse enters a critical week, the shutdown is expected to become the longest in U.S. history, and the impact on American families is increasing. Against this backdrop, Democratic senators once again urged President Trump to directly engage in negotiations to end the government shutdown. Late last week, lawmakers said they were finally making progress in talks to reopen the government and have begun discussions on how to address the expiration of enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. Once that subsidy expires, health insurance costs for millions of Americans will rise significantly. And Democrats have made health care-related negotiations a prerequisite for voting to end the shutdown.
According to the Associated Press report on November 1, the U.S. government shutdown has caused a number of government-led life security programs to be suspended due to exhaustion of funds, including the "Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program" covering 5.9 million households across the United States. This will leave some low-income American families facing a cold winter without heating.
According to a report by Iran’s Mahr News Agency on November 1, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said in an interview recently that Iran is ready to respond to another Israeli attack. He also warned Israel that if it attacks Iran again, (they) will have to wait for another defeat.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that he had apologized to U.S. President Trump for an anti-tariff TV ad and said Canada was ready to negotiate a better trade deal with the United States. Carney said he saw the ad before it aired and asked Ontario Premier Doug Ford about it. Regarding the ad, Carney said, "If it were me, I wouldn't do this." He added, "As Prime Minister, I have the responsibility to handle the relationship with the President of the United States. Some things will inevitably happen, no matter good or bad, we have to accept it, and I have apologized for it."
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said that almost all the car factories left behind after foreign car manufacturers withdrew from the Russian market have resumed production. According to Manturov, as of today, 11 of the 13 automobile factories have resumed full production, and the remaining two plan to start in 2026. Manturov stressed that these factories are systematically filling the market gap left by the withdrawal of Western brands. He gave the example of Volkswagen's Kaluga plant, which now produces Russian brand Tenet cars and has a www.qgrse.cnplete production cycle including welding and painting. Orsolus also quickly transformed its idle production capacity into producing its own models.
According to the official website of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, the agency has confirmed that it will release a crop production report and a global agricultural supply and demand estimate report on November 14. This report, which has attracted much market attention, was originally scheduled to be released on November 10. However, since the U.S. government has basically been in a state of shutdown since October 1, the industry had previously had doubts about whether the report could be released as scheduled. The upcoming report is of special significance as it will contain the U.S. government’s first official estimates of U.S. corn and soybean production since September. When the last report was released in September, harvesting of most crops in the U.S. Midwest had not yet begun in full swing, meaning the November report will be the first to provide the market with more accurate production forecasts based on data closer to the harvest season. The news eases agriculturalMarket concerns about data gaps. During the government shutdown, the lack of key agricultural data has brought uncertainty to grain traders, farmers and food www.qgrse.cnpanies, affecting the market's judgment on global food supplies
The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on gold-related tax policies. It is mentioned that taxpayers who do not sell standard gold through exchanges should pay value-added tax in accordance with current regulations. If a member unit purchases standard gold from the exchange for investment purposes and physical delivery occurs, the unit price, amount and tax amount of the special value-added tax invoice shall be determined in accordance with the following provisions.
The latest data from Haikou Customs shows that on the first day of the new tax-free policy on Hainan's outlying islands, the amount of duty-free shopping was 78.549 million yuan. The number of shopping items and the number of shoppers were 54,800 items and 12,700 people respectively. The sales volume increased by 6.1% www.qgrse.cnpared with the day before the policy was implemented (October 31), and the policy's pulling effect has initially appeared. Hainan's new tax-free policy for outlying islands allows six categories of domestic products to be sold duty-free, and island residents can purchase "buy and pick up" products an unlimited number of times once they leave the island within a year.
“Chinese www.qgrse.cnpanies, especially technology www.qgrse.cnpanies, have always been a good link connecting the world.” Wang Xingxing, CEO of Yushu Technology Co., Ltd. and a member of the entrepreneur delegation of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that Chinese technology www.qgrse.cnpanies not only learn from the world’s advanced experience, but also contribute Chinese solutions through open sharing. Wang Xingxing made the above remarks during an interview during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) www.qgrse.cnrmal leaders' meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea. Wang Xingxing pointed out that the world is currently facing the dual challenges of economic recovery and technological change, and the robot industry driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is generally regarded as the most potential growth engine in the future. He said that the AI-driven robot industry is becoming an important force in promoting economic growth in the Asia-Pacific and even the world. "If the general artificial intelligence model achieves a breakthrough, it will be like the invention of electricity or steam engines, pushing human civilization into a new stage."
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